The total change in national income is the initial increase in government, or "autonomous," spending times the fiscal multiplier. Since the marginal propensity to consume is 0. In addition to the fiscal multiplier, economists use other multipliers to study the behavior of the economy, including the earnings multiplier and the investment multiplier.
Empirical evidence suggests that the actual relationship between spending and growth is messier than theory would suggest.
Not all members of society have the same MPC. For instance, lower-income households tend to spend a much greater share of a windfall than higher-income ones. MPC also depends on the form in which fiscal stimulus is received. Different policies can, therefore, have drastically different fiscal multipliers. By far the most effective policy options, according to this analysis, are temporarily increasing food stamps 1. Permanent tax cuts benefiting mostly higher-income households, by contrast, have fiscal multipliers below 1: for every dollar "spent" given up in tax revenue , only a few cents are added to real GDP.
The idea of the fiscal multiplier has seen its influence on policy wax and wane. Keynesian theory was extremely influential in the s, but a period of stagflation , which Keynesians were largely unable to explain, caused faith in fiscal stimulus to wane.
Beginning in the s, many policymakers began to favor monetarist policies, believing that regulating the money supply was at least as effective as government spending.
Following the financial crisis , however, the fiscal multiplier has regained some of its lost popularity. The U. Accessed Nov. Mark Zandi. Behavioral Economics.
In a new paper , we answer the question by following the narrative approach for a novel dataset on value-added taxes for 51 countries 21 industrial and 30 developing from to Furthermore, while the tax multiplier for industrial European economies is statistically significant and falls roughly in the midpoint of the range found in the literature , the tax multiplier for the rest of the countries is one-third as large in absolute value and not statistically significantly different from zero. Why is there such a large difference in the size of the tax multipliers?
In line with theory, we find that the effect of tax changes on output is highly non-linear. The tax multiplier is essentially zero for relatively low initial tax rates and becomes larger in absolute value as the initial tax rate and the size of the tax change increase. Figure 1 shows the estimated tax multipliers after two years, evaluated at different levels of the initial tax rate and for various sizes of tax changes. The dark blue area represents a statistically-zero tax multiplier.
Low-income consumers are generally more liquidity-constrained. One important factor to affect the multiplier is the role of expectations. It can be argued that if the private sector sees fiscal consolidation as a signal that the share of government spending in GDP will continuously be reduced, households will revise their estimates of their permanent income upwards Giavazzi and Pagano , In this sense, there could be substitution between private and public consumption and the multiplier is smaller.
Similarly, a study looking at the s experience of some countries finds that in many cases, private consumption increases rather than contracts during periods when the government enacts plans to reduce debt or deficits Perrotti , The consensus among economic researchers is that the fiscal multiplier is higher when short-term interest rates are at or near zero. When the economy is at the ZLB, monetary policy tends not react to inflationary pressure coming from the fiscal stimulus and the increase in expected inflation leads to a drop in real interest rate, which further stimulates demand and thus increases fiscal multipliers.
The result that fiscal policy may be most potent precisely when monetary policy is least effective is a powerful argument for a fiscal stimulus when in a liquidity trap , in which policy rates cease to have any great stimulatory effect.
The multiplier may also depend on the type of government tool used: taxes, transfers, spending or investment. The multiplier for public investment tends to be larger than for other fiscal measures see, for example, Abiad et al, The Office for Budget Responsibility maintains an excellent website for fiscal data and projections and the National Institute Economic Review regularly examines current fiscal issues.
Mit dynamischen Modellversionen der keynesianisch-neoklassischen Synthese basierend auf ersten Zeitreihendaten in den er Jahren wurde versucht, diese Frage zu beantworten. Mit der Frage nach der Dynamik ist auch die Frage nach den Erwartungen der privaten Akteure angesprochen.
Eine Woche? Ein Quartal? Ein Jahr? Ist das realistisch? Das regt die Haushalte an, heute mehr zu arbeiten und zu sparen und weniger zu faulenzen und zu konsumieren. Langfristig dreht sich der Effekt spiegelbildlich ins Gegenteil, es wird mehr konsumiert aber weniger gearbeitet. Da die Haushalte in solchen Modellen einen sehr langen Planungszeitraum haben, bekommt der intertemporale Zinskanal ein enormes Gewicht.
Der Multiplikatoreffekt wird in der Neuklassik zu einem angebotsseitigen Effekt, der in der einfachsten Variante kurzfristig positiv, mittel- bis langfristig negativ und damit in Summe gleich null ist.
Dies war der Wert, von dem die meisten Institutionen vor der Finanzkrise ausgegangen sind. Die Wirkungen der Nullzinsgrenze sind allerdings nicht unumstritten.
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